Many OEMs are largely on track to hit emissions targets set by the European Commission, despite new car registrations being severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to data collected and updated on a monthly basis by JATO Dynamics, for 21 countries in Europe, the average CO2 emissions totalled 102.2 g/km – under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) between January – August 2020. By these calculations, the European automotive market is currently 6.5 g/km over their combined target for 2021– this is a dramatic shift when compared to figures recorded in 2019.

Despite overall registrations falling by 29% between January and September this year – when contrasted with the same period in 2019 – registrations for electrified cars increased by 67% through September to 1.54 million units. This increase goes some way to explain the double-digit drops seen in demand for gasoline and diesel cars, and the increase in market share for EVs from 7.8% in January – September 2019, to 18.1% in January – September 2020.

Geely Group has secured pole position in race for CO2 rankings. The owner of Volvo (which accounts for 99% of Geely Group’s volume in Europe), Polestar, LEVC and Lotus, met the target by August, 4 months ahead of the deadline.
Geely’s CO2 target for 2020 was an average of 110.3 g/k, but by August 31st its average was 103.1 g/km – making Geely the only manufacturer to outperform the target. A consistent focus on EVs is behind this achievement, with electrified vehicles accounting for almost half of its registrations in August, and 38% in January – August 2020.

BMW is next in line to meet the target. With an average of 103.5 g/km in August, they are only 0.54 g/km above their target of 102.9 g/km. If this average remained the same, the German car maker would only have to pay a minimal penalty at the end of the year. Meeting their target is more than achievable due to their mix of two strategies: increasing the share of electrified vehicles on sale, and the relatively low emissions generated by their diesel cars.