The evidence so far this year from Asian economies like China, Japan and South Korea that were hit earlier than western ones is that the coronavirus crisis and the resulting shutting down of industry will have a severe impact<\/a> on trade no matter what the politicians say.<\/p>\n But what if governments took the next step and decided to halt trade altogether as part of their efforts to slow the spread of the Covid-19 virus? What would be the economic impact then?<\/p>\n In a conversation with the Dartmouth College economic historian Douglas Irwin last week, he remembered that work by economists had been done on exactly that. Because there\u2019s an example in U.S. economic history Irwin has spent some time looking at it as well. (Irwin followed our conversation up with a thread<\/a> on Twitter over the weekend.)<\/p>\n At the request of the U.S. Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, a group of economists at Australia\u2019s Monash University in 2012 modeled what the economic impact would be of a total shutdown<\/a> of the U.S. border to cargo and people in the event of a public health threat like a pandemic.<\/p>\n They considered various scenarios, the most extreme of which called for the trade in 95% of goods to be suspended for 12 months. The impact on the U.S. economy? A fall in real gross domestic product of 48%.<\/p>\n There are, of course, fans of greater trade restrictions who would dispute that finding. There is also an example in American history \u2014 albeit one long before the days of global supply chains \u2014 to draw on that points to a milder though significant impact.<\/p>\n In December 1807 the U.S. Congress at President Thomas Jefferson\u2019s urging imposed an embargo on trade to protest British and French naval harassment that lasted until March 1809.<\/p>\n In a 2005 paper<\/a>, Irwin calculated that the embargo cost the U.S. 5% of its gross national product at the time. But it also became as close to a natural experiment in autarky as the U.S. has ever experienced in peacetime.<\/p>\n As Irwin lays out, the value of U.S. goods exports fell from $49 million in 1807 to $9 million in 1808. Meanwhile, the value of imports fell from $85 million in 1807 to $45 million in 1808 \u2014 a decline of nearly 50%.<\/p>\n We\u2019re not there yet. Except for international travel, the shutdown underway in the U.S. and European economies now is largely domestic. Any effect on trade we are likely to see is a secondary effect of economies closing down temporarily rather than the borders being closed to cargo.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t mean, though, that in an age of rising protectionism and populist economic nationalism with a pandemic rattling the world the economic costs couldn\u2019t soar even further.<\/p>\n Early South Korea trade figures for March showed surprising resilience<\/a> in exports before the full brunt of the coronavirus hit. Shipment during the first 20 days of the month rose 10% from a year earlier, the Korea Customs Service said Monday. The period had an extra 1.5 working days in the period compared with 2019. Without that, the result would have been just about flat.<\/p>\n With assistance from Ana Monteiro.<\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n By Shawn Donnan<\/i><\/p>\n Source: https:\/\/www.fleetowner.com<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n The audit is a key tool to know the overall status and provide the analysis, the assessment, the advice, the suggestions and the actions to take in order to cut costs and increase the efficiency and efficacy of the fleet. We propose the following fleet management audit.<\/p>\n The evidence so far from Asian economies like China, Japan and South Korea that were hit earlier than western ones is that the COVID-19 crisis and resulting shutting down of industry will have a severe impact on trade no matter what the politicians say. (Bloomberg) \u2014 Across North America and Europe, lockdowns of entire communities…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[18],"tags":[50],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8180"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8180"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8180\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8182,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8180\/revisions\/8182"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Charting the trade turmoil<\/h3>\n
\nCUT COTS OF THE FLEET WITH OUR AUDIT PROGRAM<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nFLEET MANAGEMENT AUDIT<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"