{"id":7369,"date":"2020-09-04T19:23:01","date_gmt":"2020-09-04T17:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/?p=7369"},"modified":"2020-09-04T19:23:01","modified_gmt":"2020-09-04T17:23:01","slug":"autonomous-vehicles-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/2020\/09\/04\/autonomous-vehicles-4\/","title":{"rendered":"The promise and paradox of autonomous vehicles"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><em>Jeff Casey<\/em> and\u00a0 <em>Mike DeBacker<\/em> of Burns &amp; McDonnell look at the possible impact of autonomous vehicles<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The rise of electric vehicles and the emergence of driverless cars brings with it significant disruption to many aspects of modern business and lifestyles. Earlier this month, the Localis think tank stated that outdated energy and infrastructure policies must urgently be modernised if the government is to avoid exacerbating UK social divides. As things stand, some communities are set to miss out on some of the major benefits new vehicles may bring. This is another sign that in this revolutionary time, society will need to confront opportunities laced with challenges, and being open to change is critical to embracing the transformation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Transport is critical to moving goods, however, its ultimate focus is on people. People experience transport in many different ways, from cars and buses, to trains and beyond. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are symbolic of managing change, both at the personal level and for business. \u00a0The idea of AVs may engender excitement or dread \u2013 but what is for definite is that the coming of AVs puts us on the cusp of one of the fastest and deepest disruptions in transport history.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Hands free, minds occupied<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Imagine a world where your car drives you. Your commute is now hands-free. You can nap, work or read as you\u2019re delivered to your office. It\u2019s highly likely you won\u2019t own a car. It will be much more convenient and cheaper to use your mobile device to call a ride when you need it. Consider some of the savings and implications of these scenarios:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Your garage won\u2019t be needed for storing cars.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">With fewer or no personally owned cars, perhaps you won\u2019t have to pay for insurance or maintenance.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">With fewer cars on the road, cities can convert land currently set aside for parking into housing or public spaces. In the UK, public car parks account for an area larger than 14,000 football pitches.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">It is estimated by futurist Thomas Frey that one AV will likely replace 15-20 traditional cars and vans. That has implications for jobs related to owning vehicles such as car dealerships and petrol stations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AVs don\u2019t get distracted, fall asleep, or drink and drive, so crashes will decline dramatically, saving tens of thousands of lives annually.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">As we model the impacts of AVs, we estimate the technology will allow 200 percent more cars to share the same amount of space, in keeping with calculations by the Institution of Civil Engineers. That means we may have reached \u201cpeak concrete\u201d in many locations \u2014 the need to construct ever-bigger motorways and roads may be coming to an end.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Promise and paradox<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">As we migrate towards different modes of mobility, there is promise and paradox:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">New vehicles will be cleaner, but they will break traditional revenue models.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AVs will be safer, but they may be susceptible to cyber attack.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">New technology will free up more time, but we may use it to do more work.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">We will be more connected than ever, but we may find ourselves more isolated as well.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">To survive and thrive in this world of paradox, individuals and companies alike must be adaptable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Two methodologies for being adaptable are gaining momentum. One way is to think about multiple futures, rather than a straight-line prediction. Most governments use scenario planning to look at long-term and emerging trends to help them get more comfortable with uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">People tend to struggle with non-linear prediction because of an innate desire to be precise. Most people prefer certainty over uncertainty, gravitating towards the precise even if it\u2019s precisely wrong instead of generally right. We need to learn to give ourselves more latitude.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">A second methodology is to create a culture of innovation, recognising that managing change often means cultural shift and adaptation. The key is to communicate why change is needed, because people fear loss of control and change for its own sake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">One undeniable trend behind our certainty that AVs will change our lives and businesses is that the rate of adoption of new technology is accelerating. For instance, in 1995, 10 years into the history of mobile phones, penetration in the UK was just 7%, but by 1999 it had grown to 46%, with a mobile being sold every 4 seconds.\u00a0 Five years later, there were more mobile phones in the UK than people.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Technologies like AVs will drive enormous change in people\u2019s lives both at work and home.\u00a0 How can we make the most of these opportunities?<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Don\u2019t be scared of change, but try to adapt and adjust.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Avoid silos. Work together across disciplines as this can unleash significant problem-solving power.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Talk about what we do and don\u2019t know about the future; discuss the opportunities and ponder the difficulties.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">In today\u2019s world, we know that information is just a few simple clicks away. But having information is not enough. The most valuable skill set in the future will be knowing how to use that information to find creative solutions to challenges that haven\u2019t even been considered yet. As we embrace the opportunities presented by technologies like AVs, we reject the false choice of either-or proposals. We live and succeed in the world of \u201cand.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em>Jeff Casey is Development Director, and\u00a0Mike DeBacker, Transportation Director at\u00a0Burns &amp; McDonnell, an international engineering consultancy<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"posted-by\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theengineer.co.uk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.theengineer.co.uk<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/consultancy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>CUT COTS OF THE FLEET WITH OUR AUDIT PROGRAM<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/consultancy\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5377 lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria-1024x682.jpg 1024w\" alt=\"\" width=\"858\" height=\"572\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria.jpg\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\" data-lazy-srcset=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/04\/nueva-ley-auditoria-1024x682.jpg 1024w\" data-was-processed=\"true\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The audit is a key tool to know the overall status and provide the analysis, the assessment, the advice, the suggestions and the actions to take in order to cut costs and increase the efficiency and efficacy of the fleet. We propose the following fleet management audit.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/consultancy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>FLEET MANAGEMENT AUDIT<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeff Casey and\u00a0 Mike DeBacker of Burns &amp; McDonnell look at the possible impact of autonomous vehicles The rise of electric vehicles and the emergence of driverless cars brings with it significant disruption to many aspects of modern business and lifestyles. Earlier this month, the Localis think tank stated that outdated energy and infrastructure policies&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7370,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[18],"tags":[8],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7369"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7369"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7371,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7369\/revisions\/7371"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}