{"id":3044,"date":"2019-07-08T16:41:02","date_gmt":"2019-07-08T14:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/en.advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/?p=3044"},"modified":"2019-07-08T16:41:02","modified_gmt":"2019-07-08T14:41:02","slug":"3044","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/2019\/07\/08\/3044\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Autonomous vehicles Save the World? History Says It&#8217;s No Sure Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img class=\"wrapImageCMS aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/fleetimages.bobitstudios.com\/upload\/fleet-forward\/content\/news\/may-mobility-press-photos\/l-columbusohio-driveohio-maymobility-shuttle-viadriveohio-1.jpg\" alt=\"Researchers at the University of Texas modeled traffic in the Austin area and found that one shared autonomous vehicle could do the work of nine conventional vehicles, with wait times between 20 seconds and five minutes.\n - Photo courtesy of May Mobility.\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Researchers at the University of Texas modeled traffic in the Austin area and found that one shared autonomous vehicle could do the work of nine conventional vehicles, with wait times between 20 seconds and five minutes. <em>Photo courtesy of May Mobility.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center\">Will Autonomous vehicles Save the World? History Says It&#8217;s No Sure Thing<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Electric autonomous vehicles will clear streets of the traffic jams and pollution and save lives, curing the ills wrought by private autos, right?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Maybe not, history teaches. Believe it or not, the early automobile was proclaimed to be the \u201cenvironmental savior\u201d of a crisis caused by horses. Yes, horses.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Mobility by Horse<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">In 1900, cities were \u201cdrowning\u201d in horse waste. Some 120,000 horses in New York City produced 60,000 gallons of urine and 2.5 million pounds of manure daily, overwhelming streets. Dead horses were left to rot. Fly-borne illness killed 20,000 people per year. England faced the \u201cThe Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894,\u201d with The Times predicting that, in 50 years, \u201cevery street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u201cThe Horseless Age\u201d was a nickname for the movement to accelerate the introduction of automobiles to save us from the devastation wrought by mobility by horse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Environmental savior? It hardly seems possible today, as auto emissions are major cause of global warming that threatens the planet\u2019s survival.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Are We Missing Something?<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Did anyone see this coming in 1900? As we look to electric AVs to atone for the sins of the auto, we need to ask what social, environmental, and economic threats we might be missing. Here are some less than rosy possible outcomes from the widespread of AVs. First, they might not make traffic better.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>A\u00a0UC Santa Cruz study\u00a0found autonomous vehicles would double traffic in San Francisco because cruising while empty (50 cents per hour) is cheaper than parking ($6 per hour in San Francisco).<\/li>\n<li>A\u00a0WEF\/Boston Consulting Group report\u00a0predicted Boston traffic would increase by 5%, mostly due to people using AVs in place of public transit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Then, there are also possible negative environmental impacts, mainly due to the energy and materials required to manufacture electric vehicles.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>It takes twice the energy to build electric vehicles, and they must travel approximately 77,761 miles to break even with a gas vehicles\u2019 carbon footprint.<\/li>\n<li>The vehicles\u2019 lithium-ion batteries are difficult to recycle \u2014 95% to 98% wind up in landfills.<\/li>\n<li>Mines for the minerals used in the batteries are in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Russia, and China, some with dubious environmental and labor standards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">There are efforts underway to avoid some of these\u00a0negative outcomes.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>WEF formed the Global Battery Alliance to create manufacturing standards to ease recycling, calm demand, and divert spent batteries from landfills.<\/li>\n<li>Humanitarian organizations are pressing battery manufactures to monitor labor practices of suppliers.<\/li>\n<li>Cities are already limiting vehicle access to central business districts to force pooling and investing in bicycle and pedestrian \u201csuperhighways.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Sharing the Future<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">There is also a good bit of data to indicate that these negative outcomes can be avoided if the primary model of personal transit shifts from individual vehicles to shared services. An\u00a0Australian government report\u00a0found that in theory \u201cAVs would roam the city, filling in gaps in the timetables and fixed routes of a superior and cheaper public transport network.\u201d However, \u201cFor this scenario to work, AVs must be shared and not privately owned.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Researchers at the University of Texas modeled traffic in the Austin area and found that one shared autonomous vehicle could do the work of nine conventional vehicles, with wait times between 20 seconds and five minutes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Five minutes appears to be a magic number for ride-sharing.\u00a0Researchers at MIT and Cornell University\u00a0looked at 150 million New York City taxi trips found that 95% could be shared with just a five-minute delay in trip time, and that the overall impact would make trips 40% faster, due to reduced traffic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Could it work? A study of Chicago taxi trips conducted by Bestmile using its fleet orchestration platform simulated how a shared service would perform in comparison to the citywide taxi service. We found that 200 shared vehicles could do the work of the city\u2019s 2,700 taxis, also with an average wait time of \u2014you guessed it \u2014 five minutes.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Can We Get There from Here?<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">A 10-fold decrease in the number of vehicles would go a long way toward reducing the energy and materials needed to build them. Will the public adopt shared electric autonomous services? The \u201cshared\u201d part seems to most to be a bigger barrier than the electric part. The services will have to be more convenient than driving. A study by ticketing platform Masabi found \u201cconvenience\u201d to be the number one factor in people consider when choosing how to get around \u2014 more important than cost. A delay of five minutes could be a powerful incentive for using a shared service, considering that it takes 13 to 32 minutes just to find a place to park in the world\u2019s cities.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">A 100-Year View<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Achieving the kind of efficiency these studies promise at scale, though, is not easy. Look at peer-to-peer ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft. They have made congestion 180% worse in cities as they travel twice the miles empty than they do carrying passengers. Vehicles \u2014 horses or autos \u2014 alone don\u2019t solve environmental or congestion problems. For electric autonomous vehicles it is the nature and quality of the services they provide \u2014 economically, socially, and environmentally \u2014 that will determine whether, 100 years from now, we\u2019re not desperately searching an alternative.<\/p>\n<p><em>Anne Mellano is the VP of\u00a0operations and co-founder of\u00a0Bestmile.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fleetforward.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.fleetforward.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center\">FLEET MANAGEMENT AUDIT<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Fleet management is the use of a set of vehicles in order to provide services to a third-party, or to perform a task for our organization, in the most efficient and productive manner with a determined level of service and cost.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Fleet management activities are shown in the following graph 1:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1106 size-full\" title=\"fleet management activities\" src=\"http:\/\/en.advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/grafico-AFMC-en.jpg\" alt=\"fleet management activities\" width=\"1600\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2016\/06\/grafico-AFMC-en.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2016\/06\/grafico-AFMC-en-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2016\/06\/grafico-AFMC-en-1024x512.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">Graph 1: fleet management activities<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The proposal audit analyses and assesses all fleet management activities shown in the graph 1, and its main goals are:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>Know the overall status of the fleet management activities<\/li>\n<li>Provide the analysis, the assessment, the advice, the suggestions and the actions to take in order to cut costs and increase the efficiency and efficacy of the fleet management\u00a0 activities<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">With the information obtained, we\u2019ll elaborate a report that holds the overall status of the fleet management as well as the suggestions, recommendations and the measures to take in order to cut costs and optimize the fleet management activities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK TO DOWNLOAD THE PROPOSED FLEET MANAGEMENT AUDIT:<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/en.advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Fleet-Management-Audit-AFMC.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fleet Management Audit AFMC<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>Contact:<\/p>\n<p>Jos\u00e9 Miguel Fern\u00e1ndez G\u00f3mez<\/p>\n<p>34 678254874<\/p>\n<p>info@advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-1680\" src=\"http:\/\/en.advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/JMF-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"JMF\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2017\/04\/JMF-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2017\/04\/JMF-350x350.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/>I\u00b4m\u00a0a Fleet Management expert, and the manager of\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/en.advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Advanced Fleet Management Consulting<\/a><\/strong>, that provides Fleet Management Consultancy Services.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers at the University of Texas modeled traffic in the Austin area and found that one shared autonomous vehicle could do the work of nine conventional vehicles, with wait times between 20 seconds and five minutes. Photo courtesy of May Mobility. Will Autonomous vehicles Save the World? History Says It&#8217;s No Sure Thing Electric autonomous&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[18],"tags":[8],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3044"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3044\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advancedfleetmanagementconsulting.com\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}